Letter Opposing the Proposed Manassas-Area Route 28 Bypass Along Flat Branch and Bull Run

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The following is my June 25, 2020 letter to the Manassas City Council's Land Use Committee, opposing a draft Manassas City Council resolution that endorses moving ahead to design and construct Prince William County's proposed Route 28 Bypass (aka Godwin Dr Extension) along Flat Branch and Bull Run, without out first completing the federal Environmental Assessment Study which had been underway for 18 months:

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Dear Members of the Manassas City Council's Land Use Committee:

I strongly oppose the proposed Manasass City Council resolution endorsing "Alternative 2B" (the extension of Godwin Dr along Flat Branch and Bull Run) as the preferred alternative for the still incomplete and undisclosed Route 28 Environmental Assessment.  The reasons for my opposition are several.

1) The Incomplete and Undisclosed Environmental Assessment Study Suggests Serious Problems with the Proposed Alignment:

As demonstrated by the continued absence of significant study information on the Study Website [ http://route28study.com/ ], the ongoing Environmental Assessment for the proposed Rte 28 Bypass, which began in October 2018, has still not been completed or properly concluded, no Draft Environmental Assessment has been issued for public review and comment, and very little substantive information about the environmental impacts of the proposed alignment (Alternative 2B) has yet been disclosed to the public.

According to the 9-slide PowerPoint presentation on this Environmental Assessment prepared for "Public Meeting #2" held on October 9, 2019, the Environmental Assessment (EA) Study was scheduled for conclusion in "Fall 2019", with a Public Hearing planned for "January 2020", and a "Final Decision on the Environmental Assessment by FHWA" planned for "Spring 2020".  The failure of the study to achieve any of those three milestones over the past nine months suggests that this EA Study has continued to encounter serious objections from federal oversight agencies, including the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

It appears that Prince William County's transportation planners seek to abandon the incomplete and undisclosed federal Environmental Assessment Study and proceed directly to design and build a new highway project through an environmentally sensitive flood plain without any federal-aid funding.  With this risky and desperate strategy, the project team is seeking to prematurely advance a specific project alternative without giving the public and their elected officials an opportunity to adequately understand this project's likely many undesirable impacts on both regional traffic congestion, affected residential communities, and the natural and built environment.  In short, abandoning the federal Environmental Assessment and proceeding directly to design and construct Alternative 2B at this time seems premature, at best.

2) The Proposed Bypass Will Likely Be Ineffective and Counterproductive at Reducing Rte 28 Traffic Congestion in the Long Term:

Unfortunately, the prior Route 28 Corridor Feasibility Study, completed in 2017, was poorly scoped to look at moving traffic through a broad Rte 28 Corridor, starting at the west limit of the City of Manassas (west of the Prince William Parkway Interchange), rather than from Liberia Avenue north.  Because the vehicular capacity created by four new lanes of limited-access highway is clearly far greater than adding only two lanes to the existing Centreville Rd through Yorkshire, the extension of Godwin Dr has been pursued in the current Route 28 Environmental Assessment as the desired alternative.

However, when you ask the wrong question, you often arrive at a dysfunctional conclusion. The objective should not be how to move the most vehicles through the Rte 28 corridor south of Bull Run.  Rather, it should be how to move the most people and reduce traffic congestion in a sustainable manner, by providing effective travel alternatives to solo motoring, especially via rapid bus transit and ridesharing.

The proposed extension of Godwin Dr would do little, if anything, to reduce traffic congestion along the existing Centreville Rd corridor (especially as residential development continues throughout our area), and would actually substantially worsen traffic congestion along Centerville Rd in Fairfax County, even after the latter highway is eventually expanded to 8 travel lanes (including two bus/HOV lanes).

Instead, the extension of Godwin Dr would largely induce new traffic to the Centreville Rd corridor in Fairfax County south of I-66 that would otherwise use the Prince William Parkway (Rte 234) or Sudley Rd (Rte 234 Business) to reach I-66.  Furthermore, the extension of Godwin Dr would become a powerful magnet for new auto-oriented residential sprawl development, both within the dwindling rural crescent of Prince William County and in largely rural Fauquier, Culpeper, and Stafford Counties to the west.

In my opinion, the extension of Godwin Dr would make sense only if established will full-time congestion-priced tolling (the toll price could be zero whenever the road would be uncongested).  Doing so could 1) establish freeway-speed carpooling, vanpooling, and rapid bus transit as viable travel alternatives along the Rte 28 corridor, 2) keep the new road permanently uncongested, 3) discourage solo motorists living west of Manassas from using the new connection to bypass part of I-66, and 4) allow building a narrower (possibly only 2-lane), less costly, and less environmentally destructive Godwin Dr Extension along Flat Branch and Bull Run.

3) A Better Alternative to Extending Godwin Dr Should Be Fully and Fairly Examined:

A viable and effective Rte 28 improvement alternative that unfortunately was not evaluated in the 2017 Route 28 Corridor Feasibility Study could be far better than either extending Godwin Dr or widening the existing Centreville Rd through Yorkshire.  That would be to create a new southbound-only roadway a block or so west of the existing Centreville Rd through Yorkshire, converting the existing Centreville Rd in Yorkshire into a northbound-only roadway with a dedicated bus lane, and operating both roadways as one-way pairs with synchronized traffic signals.  With the bus lanes in place, Yorkshire could become a prime candidate for transit-oriented redevelopment (aka smart growth), similar to--and reinforcing--how the City of Manassas already plans to redevelop its Mathis Avenue Corridor.   


4) Adverse Impacts and Costs for the City of Manassas:
 

While the extension of Godwin Dr would be built using $89 million in previously allocated NVTA money and $200 million from the voter-approved 2019 Prince William County transportation bond referendum, this project would still also have financial costs and other adverse impacts for the City of Manassas. 

The Godwin Dr Extension would require the City of Manassas to: 1) widen Godwin Dr to at least six lanes between Nokesville Rd and Sudley Rd and possibly 2) build a grade-separated overpass and interchange for Godwin Dr over Wellington Rd and the Norfolk Southern Railroad, 3) build a new interchange at Godwin Dr and Nokesville Rd, and/or 4) build an interchange at Godwin Dr and Ashton Ave.

If the Godwin Dr Extension will have an intersection or interchange at Lomond Dr, traffic on Liberia Avenue will increase substantially west of Centreville Rd, degrading the quality of life and public safety through largely lower-income, multifamily, and Hispanic residential neighborhoods within the City of Manassas and possibly requiring the City to increase vehicular capacity, parking restrictions, and/or traffic-control or traffic-calming devices along that residential street.

Finally, while diverting long-distance commuter traffic from Rte 28 in downtown Manassas is desirable in some respects, it would negatively impact many Manassas businesses along the existing Rte 28 by diverting existing customers elsewhere.

In conclusion, even without considering the personal financial hardships and equity impacts of demolishing 70 or more relatively affordable residential homes along Flat Branch and Bull Run to create this new roadway, much less the undisclosed--but likely substantial--adverse storm water and habitat impacts, the proposed Extension of Godwin Dr is a bad idea that the City of Manassas should not endorse.